Vietnam Grew 8.4% Last Quarter. Its Imports Grew 26%.

Vietnam is expanding faster than any economy in Southeast Asia and faster than it has in more than a decade. The composition of that growth is where the questions sit.

GDP grew 8.39% year on year in the second quarter, accelerating from an upwardly revised 7.94% in the first and lifting first-half growth to 8.18%. Industry and construction surged 10.51%, contributing just over half of total value added. Services rose 7.87% and agriculture 4.06%.

On the expenditure side, fixed investment jumped 15.20% and final consumption grew 8.15%.

Then the trade figures. Exports of goods and services climbed 20.18%. Imports rose 26.44%.

Why the import number matters more here

In most economies, imports outpacing exports for a quarter is unremarkable. In Vietnam it is not, because of how much of the economy runs through trade.

Vietnam's trade-to-GDP ratio approaches 170%, making it one of the world's most open and trade-oriented economies and, in the World Bank's assessment, highly sensitive to global shifts. When trade flows move, they move the whole economy rather than a segment of it.

The driver is identifiable. The National Statistics Office recorded the same pattern in the first quarter — exports up 19.85% against imports up 24.27% — with the gap attributed to the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices. Vietnam is a net fuel importer, and higher crude prices arrive as a larger import bill.

Analysts have warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push crude substantially higher, which for an economy at this level of trade exposure is the clearest external risk.

Part of the import surge is also capital goods feeding the 15.20% jump in fixed investment — machinery and inputs for the manufacturing base rather than consumption. That is a better problem than the alternative, and it is why the position remains comfortable overall: Vietnam's current account surplus reached a record 6.7% of GDP in 2025, supported by resilient goods exports and strong remittances.

The credit warning

The less visible concern is domestic and has been raised by regional monitors rather than by markets.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office found Vietnamese growth underpinned by strong export-oriented manufacturing, sustained foreign direct investment and firm domestic demand — while noting that credit growth has been brisk and there are incipient signs of risk accumulation. Safeguarding macro-financial stability, it said, will require a prudent, well-calibrated policy mix that avoids procyclicality.

"Incipient signs of risk accumulation" is careful institutional language for credit expanding faster than the underlying economy can absorb safely. It is not a warning of imminent stress. It is a note that the growth model has a financing dimension that bears watching.

The Asian Development Bank has separately identified developing the domestic bond market as a key policy challenge, to diversify financing beyond banking and better support long-term investment needs.

The target and the gap

Hanoi's ambition exceeds even the current pace. The government is targeting growth above 10% this year, backed by infrastructure spending and hundreds of large-scale projects worth an estimated $200 billion, with a stated aim of at least 10% annually through 2030.

External forecasters are more conservative. The World Bank projects 6.8% for 2026 before a rebound to 7.1% in 2027. S&P Global Ratings has indicated around 6.7% annually over three years.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has himself acknowledged the underlying constraint, noting that growth still relies on cheap labour and resources rather than technology, innovation and digital transformation. Reaching high-income status by 2045 — the stated national goal — would require more than tripling current per capita income, demanding average annual growth near 6% for two decades.

The currency has been steady through all of it. The dong traded around 26,124 to the dollar on 21 August, strengthening 0.72% over the preceding month.

What to watch

Whether the import surge moderates is the immediate question, and it depends largely on oil. Consumer prices offered an encouraging signal in June, when the CPI fell 0.39% month on month mainly on lower gasoline and oil prices.

The second is credit. AMRO's flag is the most substantive caution attached to Vietnam's performance this year, and the policy response will determine whether it stays incipient.

The third is the 20% US tariff on Vietnamese exports. In an economy with a 170% trade-to-GDP ratio, tariff exposure is not a sectoral issue.